The Great Crash Ahead

The Great Crash Ahead

Strategies for A World Turned Upside Down

Book - 2011
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In his most recent New York Times bestselling book, The Great Depression Ahead, Harry S. Dent, Jr., predicted that the stimulus plan created in response to the first crisis would hit demographic and debt saturation headwinds and ultimately fail. In 2010, the stimulus plan had started to fail, and it was already stalling by the first quarter of 2011. The Great Crash Ahead outlines why the next crash and crisis is inevitable, and just around the corner--coming between 2012 and 2014.

With incisive critical analysis and historical examples, this book lays bare the traditional assumptions of economics. Dent shows that the government doesn't drive our economy, consumers and businesses do; that the Fed does not create most of the money in our economy, the private banking system does; and that the largest generation in history is now saving for or moving into retirement, meaning slowing growth. This is the new normal! Our banking system borrowed to lend for the first time in history with unprecedented leverage and debt levels of $42 trillion, way beyond the massive government debt. But the government's promises and unfunded liabilities take the cake, at an estimated $66 trillion and growing!

These massive debts will have to be restructured in a time of slowing spending, and this means a deflationary crisis, which is very different from the inflationary crisis of the 1970s and requires very different personal, investment, and business strategies. Dent and Johnson outline these strategies in very practical detail. In the coming years, the greatest surprise will be that the U.S. dollar becomes the safe haven and appreciates just when everyone is calling for it to crash, while the gold and silver bubbles burst along with the stock and commodity bubbles. And real estate will see another round of declines just when everyone thought it could go no lower. The Great Crash Ahead is about making smart, cautious investments--avoiding the sort of high-risk, high-profit investment schemes that sank the world economy.

The road to recovery will be filled with challenges and will require massive change, such as debt restructuring, plans for greater employment, the restructuring of social welfare programs such as social security and health care, budget cuts, and higher taxes--in short, a revision of the kind of lifestyle that characterized the "Roaring 2000s." The good news is this process will eliminate tens of trillions of dollars of debt and can make way for growth again as the echo boom generation ascends. Or we can continue on our present course and end up like the Japanese, with no growth and high debt two decades later.
Publisher: New York : Free Press, c2011.
Edition: 1st Free Press hardcover ed.
ISBN: 9781451641547
Branch Call Number: 330.973 DEN
Characteristics: xvi, 341 p. : ill. ; 24 cm.
Additional Contributors: Johnson, Rodney

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j
joehall
Mar 25, 2013

Author from Mises institute link

a
Avantel
Oct 05, 2012

Harry Dent displays in this book an abstract all the money and demography figures that has been moving in the American economy and a little bit of figures from rest of the world. He doesn’t focus much on very specific event like many other finance writers but rather focuses on the big picture. He’s at times arrogant and emotional and you may notice how he has made the same mistakes as the conventional economists that he mocks, but overall he’s the guy who makes todays situation more understandable while using facts and staying away from ideologies.
And at the end, I must admit that his advice to face the crisis may not be the best, but maybe the safest and it’s because if you keep thinking to yourself when reading, you may have to admit that his models to predict the future is not totally reliable, like any other model. I have kept an eye on his ideas since early 2009 and must admit that he has already disappointed investors by keeping them out of stocks and commodities. Yet, you should listen to his disclosure of our world state and factors that really matter in economy that the media doesn’t make clear.

d
delfon
Apr 11, 2012

Sort of a more detailed take on Robert Prechters, Conquier the Crash, or Kondriateff theory or Elliot Wave theory. Eastering has a couple of good books on this as well.

b
Bert1357
Sep 24, 2011

By all means read the book but this author makes very many wrong predictions. His previous book "The Great Depression Ahead" was 1-2 years too late. If you followed his "sell everything" recommendation, you sold at precisely the wrong time.

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